Crypto prediction markets: time windows, thresholds and sources

Frame the question before you open an order

2 contracts can both read bitcoin above 100,000 and settle in opposite directions, because one asks whether the price is above that level at a stated deadline, while the other asks whether it touched the level at any moment inside the window. Before buying anything, write your view in one line: record the asset, the threshold, the time window and the data source. If you cannot fill in all 4, you are not yet trading a question you understand.

An event groups one or more markets, and events, conditions and outcome token identifiers are separate fields. Tags on events overlap rather than forming an exclusive hierarchy, so a parent label like crypto tells you little about settlement. Open the individual market and check its own active, closed and acceptingOrders flags instead of trusting the event page.

4 question shapes you will meet

Asset up or down over a short duration compares a start value and an end value of the same named stream, using a time-weighted average price, or TWAP. A TWAP averages prices across a set period so one spike cannot decide the contract on its own. If the end value is at or above the start value the market settles UP; otherwise DOWN. Because the stream is defined by one venue, candles from another exchange can show a different result. Read the rules for the specific duration and source you trade; do not generalise the same logic to every window length.

Price at deadline takes a single value at a stated time and asks whether it clears a level. Threshold touched before deadline pays YES if any qualifying moment inside the window reaches the level, even if the price later falls below it. The fourth shape named in the question taxonomy is the perpetual derivative, and this guide treats it only as a label to route on, not as a mechanics definition. The same headline can map to 2 of these shapes, so the shape matters more than the wording of the title.

Illustrative case: touched 100,000, ended 99,000

This case is illustrative, not a price forecast or a market quote. Suppose bitcoin touches 100,000 dollars at some point during the day and ends the day at 99,000 dollars. Under a touch market with a 100,000 threshold and a window covering that moment, the touch condition is met and the contract settles YES. Under a deadline market asking whether the price is above 100,000 at the end of the day, the same data settles NO, because 99,000 is below the level. Same asset, same threshold, opposite outcomes.

The case table below writes down the assumptions that produce those 2 results. Move the threshold, shorten the window or swap the price source and either outcome can flip. That is the losing case to watch for: you can be right about direction and still lose because you bought the wrong question shape, and buying deadline-above YES would lose in this example even though touch YES wins.

Compute the taker fee before you size

On fee-enabled markets the taker fee equals C times feeRate times p times 1 minus p, where C is the number of shares and p is the price. Makers are not charged; takers are. In the crypto category the documented feeRate is 0.07 as of the documentation checked on 2026-10-10. For 100 shares at 0.40 the fee is 0.07 times 100 times 0.40 times 0.60, which is 1.68 dollars. That is 4.2 percent of the 40 dollar notional, not a flat 7 percent of cash, and the fee shrinks as p moves toward 0 or 1.

The same formula at 100 shares and a sports feeRate of 0.05 gives 1.25 dollars at p equal to 0.50. Crypto at 0.07 is the higher category rate in the checked documentation, so a thin edge on a low-priced crypto contract can disappear into fees. Verify the market fee parameters and current documentation before sending an order. External wallet or bridge intermediaries may charge separately, and because some docs reference USDC while newer product docs reference pUSD, do not assume one collateral asset across all products.

Route by question type

Use the decision table below as a quick router before you open an order ticket. Each row names the time logic and the child guide that goes deeper on that shape, including how resolution is decided and where the edge tends to break down. The rule behind the table: match the contract to the exact event you can describe in one sentence, and if you cannot name the window, the threshold and the source, step back.

Sources and settlement edge cases

The rules text, not the title, specifies the resolution source, the deadline and the handling of edge moments. Ordinary binary markets pay 1 to the winning share and 0 to the losing share. Rare unknown or 50-50 resolutions can pay 0.50 to each side instead of cancelling or refunding, so an ambiguous market is not automatically a safe one. UMA resolves ordinary prediction markets, while Chainlink TWAP resolves up or down markets, and different exchange candles can diverge from the named stream.

Before trading, read the rules, identify the data source, confirm the time zone and deadline, and check that the market itself is still active and accepting orders. No model or assistant predicts crypto noise reliably; the durable work is matching your question to the contract and knowing how it settles. If any of those 4 items is unclear, the market is not a clean expression of your view.

Pick the child guide for your next step

If your question is about a short window and a start versus end comparison, read the bitcoin windows guide. If your question is about a level that must be reached or exceeded, including the difference between a touch and a deadline check, read the thresholds guide. If the market is labelled as a perpetual derivative, read the perpetuals guide. Before any order, read the fee guide, because on low-priced crypto shares a small edge is easily erased. Each destination is linked once below.

Then write your question, window, threshold and source on one line and compare it against the market rules. That habit catches most of the mismatches this hub describes before money is at risk.