Polymarket andprediction markets.
Contract prices, historical data and forecasting methods, with the sources you need to examine a market.
Prices and history
Read a market priceUS–Iran ceasefire through October 12?
YES price94.65%
24-hour volume$682.9K
No observations for this period.
Oct 10, 05:26 UTC · 94.65%
Data retrieved Polymarket sources
Understand how it works
Contract rules, pricing and settlement.
How do prediction markets work?
A question, 2 outcomes and a settlement rule.
How does Polymarket work?
YES / NO shares, order books and settlement.
What does a share price mean?
Price, estimated probability and expected result.
Access and country restrictions
Platform availability and local rules.
AI forecasting
Evaluate a model on resolved events. Compare its probabilities with a reference and preserve the information available at the time of each forecast.
P(YES)Illustrative scenario · no live market data
Simulate a binary position
A hypothetical binary share costs $0.42 and pays $1 if YES resolves. Costs are fixed at $2 for 100 shares.
Expected net result
If YES resolves+$56
If NO resolves−$44
The probability is your assumption. A positive expected result can still lead to a full loss of the outlay.