Science prediction markets: milestones, evidence and delays

Check the milestone before the headline

A scheduled attempt, a weather delay and a completed milestone are 3 different states, and markets can treat them differently. Start from the decisive wording in the resolution rules rather than from the event title.

A delay is an observable change in the calendar, not evidence about the underlying science. NASA's Swift servicing launch was postponed on Tuesday due to unfavorable weather, with the next attempt targeted for no earlier than Wednesday, July 1 at 9:43 p.m. UTC+12 (5:43 a.m. EDT).

For launch-specific thresholds and counting rules, read the space launch guide. For adjacent technology topics, read technology markets.

Decisive clause: altitude, not orbit

A captured Starship contract resolves on the number of launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET. A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching that minimum altitude.

The same description says any anomaly after the vehicle reaches 62 miles, such as an explosion, has no bearing on the outcome. That rule separates takeoff, reaching altitude, reaching orbit and recovery: orbit and recovery sit outside this settlement test even though they matter to the mission.

Worked case: the altitude threshold

Imagine a launch that takes off, reaches 62 miles, then suffers an anomaly before achieving orbit. Under the captured rule the altitude threshold is met, so that launch counts even without orbit.

This is an illustration, not a probability estimate or a claim about any real flight. The checklist below turns the same logic into a short procedure you can apply to any milestone market.

Where settlement depends on which source controls the outcome, the resolution rules explained page covers sourcing, deadlines and rare edge cases such as a 50-50 payout.

Milestone checklist

7 questions map the gap between a scheduled test and a completed milestone:

When the outcome is later contested, you can compare pre-event forecasts with subsequent evidence in the prediction journal.

Where the checklist breaks

The checklist is a procedure, not an empirical study. Its categories overlap: a single launch can pass altitude and still fail orbit and recovery, so it does not give a score or rank how often each failure occurs.

Dates, contestants and contract clauses are snapshots captured from their sources. The Starship rules were retrieved on 10 October 2026 and some example dates are already past; they document a rule, not a current launch forecast or a tradable opportunity.