Earnings prediction markets: EPS, consensus and accounting basis

The captured contract threshold and the strict inequality

In a snapshot retrieved 10 October 2026, an example BlackRock (BLK) quarterly earnings submarket states that as of market creation the Street consensus estimate for non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter was $14.42. The contract resolves YES only if BlackRock reports non-GAAP EPS strictly greater than $14.42 for that quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. A reported figure of exactly $14.42 does not meet the threshold. These dates and clauses come from a documented historical rule example; they are not a claim that the market is currently tradable, nor a prediction of any outcome.

To read that condition correctly you need to define the terms. EPS, or earnings per share, is a company's profit attributable to common shareholders divided by the number of shares used in the calculation. In French it is often called BPA (bénéfice par action), and in Spanish BPA (beneficio por acción). The accounting basis is the set of rules used to compute those earnings: GAAP (U.S. generally accepted accounting principles) for U.S. filings, or IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for many international issuers. Non-GAAP EPS is an adjusted figure that excludes or adds items relative to the directly comparable GAAP measure. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidance notes that non-GAAP labels and adjustments require clear description, and that non-GAAP measures need not be comparable between companies.

The same SEC guidance is accounting context, not a legal assessment of a prediction market or an investment recommendation. It explains why 2 companies can both report a non-GAAP EPS and still define it differently, which is exactly why the contract you are reading names the source and the fallback chain instead of leaving the basis open.

A worked decision: adjusted 14.43 versus GAAP 13.90

This is an explicitly illustrative example, not an actual result, and no outcome is claimed for any company. Suppose a company under the captured $14.42 non-GAAP threshold reports an adjusted headline figure of $14.43 and a GAAP figure of $13.90 for the relevant quarter. The adjusted figure exceeds $14.42, so if it qualifies as the primary headline non-GAAP EPS under the captured rules, the condition is met. The GAAP figure of $13.90 is below the threshold and would not satisfy it on its own. That difference is the accounting-basis mechanism you are actually pricing.

The table below is an illustrative case of contract inputs and outcomes, not a report from any real earnings release. It shows that the threshold is a strict inequality and that the fallback chain only matters if the non-GAAP figure is absent or unusable. The same illustration makes the losing cases explicit: 14.42 equal is not YES, a GAAP-only 13.90 is not YES against the non-GAAP threshold, and a figure derived from a later revision does not re-open the question.

Fallback order, timing and the revision rule

The captured contract sets a precise fallback chain. First, the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company's official earnings documents. If the company releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96 hours of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, then the GAAP EPS listed in the company's official earnings documents, or if not published there, the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market resolves to No. For the purposes of that market, GAAP EPS means diluted GAAP EPS unless it is not published, in which case it means basic GAAP EPS. All figures are expressed in USD unless otherwise indicated, and all figures are rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

2 limits matter for the decision. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, the captured rule resolves the market to No. And subsequent restatements, corrections or revisions to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure do not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes such as fat finger errors. The captured rule cites Lyft's February 2024 earnings release as an example of that exception. That means your source of truth is the initial report as published, not a later clean-up filing.

The share basis and listing venue are also pinned down. If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market resolves according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis; if diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS qualifies. For primarily internationally listed companies, the market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq, and where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), it refers to the ADR/ADS. IFRS EPS is treated as GAAP EPS for that market.

What a stock price move does and does not tell you

A share price reaction after an earnings release does not establish the contract outcome or any trading profit. Even if the underlying stock moves sharply, the resolution question is whether the reported non-GAAP EPS figure satisfies the strict inequality in the captured rules, using the named sources, deadline and rounding convention. The broader resolution mechanics are described in this guide to resolution in prediction markets, which explains that ordinary binary winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0, and that rare unknown or 50-50 resolutions can pay $0.50 each rather than triggering a universal cancellation or refund.

That distinction is practical: someone checking an earnings headline should compare the specified EPS basis with the fixed contract threshold, not substitute price excitement for rule compliance. The contract's own description, including the source list, the 96-hour window and the 45-day limit, is what a reader has to verify before treating a headline as decisive. Different contracts can use different resolution sources and time windows, so do not generalize the exact numbers or deadlines from a captured market to every duration or source. If you want the broader market-structure mechanics behind these contracts, see the prediction markets guide; if you want to compare what the market is currently implying, the expected value guide covers how probabilities are read; and for the macro context around company results, the economy topic guide provides the wider frame.