Daily temperature markets: station, rounding and finalized data

The clause that settles the contract

A daily temperature contract does not resolve on a city, a forecast, or a chart you see on a weather app. It resolves on the highest temperature recorded at a named station, in a named unit, after the source data is finalized. The Jinan example demonstrates this: the contract rule specifies the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, in degrees Celsius, on 20 May 2026, with Wunderground as the resolution source. That is the whole decision surface. The linked resolution rules provide the general framework for checking this contract.

The phrase once information is finalized does real work. It means a value published on the same page earlier in the day can still change, and the contract cannot resolve until the source stops revising. The Jinan rule explicitly adds that any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized will not be considered. So your settlement value is not the running high you might see during the afternoon; it is the finalized daily high.

Station, unit and the rounding trap

3 attributes define the contract’s measurement: station identity, temperature unit, and displayed precision. Yaoqiang Airport is not Jinan city centre, and a station a few kilometres away can post a different daily high. The contract points to a page on Wunderground and tells you how to switch the unit with the gear icon. Then it states the precision: whole degrees Celsius, for example 9°C. Whole-degree resolution means the final categorical bucket is defined on integer values, not on decimals.

For scale, the Celsius to Fahrenheit relation is F = 1.8C + 32. So 28°C equals 82.4°F. That arithmetic matters because a station that reports in Fahrenheit and a contract that resolves in whole Celsius can produce different integer results depending on which conversion path is used. The NWS observation FAQ makes the narrower technical point that Celsius rounding and conversion back to Fahrenheit can differ from the original station observation, and that short automated reports carry reduced precision. Do not assume the integer you see in an interface is the integer another interface produces.

A worked rounding case, explicitly hypothetical

The following is an authored illustration, not a rule inferred from the Jinan contract. Suppose a separate contract states that settlement uses the nearest whole degree Celsius. 2 measured values then resolve as follows: 27.4°C rounds to 27°C, and 27.6°C rounds to 28°C. Converted to Fahrenheit, 27.4°C is 81.32°F and 27.6°C is 81.68°F, using F = 1.8C + 32. The conversion preserves the ordering, but the categorical settlement flips between the 2 buckets because of a 0.2°C difference.

Under the hypothetical nearest-whole rounding rule, the decision is determined by which side of 27.5°C the finalized value falls on. Under a different contract that explicitly truncates or uses a range bucket, the same 27.4°C and 27.6°C could map differently. This is why the contract vocabulary matters more than the implied common-sense reading.

Recorded example versus advance forecast

The Wunderground page the Jinan contract cites is a history page for a specific airport station and date. Its URL contains history/daily, and the contract language refers to the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station once information is finalized. The word Forecast appears in the source description, but that label does not turn the page into a reliable advance forecast. The page is the settlement record referenced by the contract; the contract does not guarantee what it will show before the date closes.

A separate question is whether forecast language can be used as a forward signal. It cannot be assumed. If you are evaluating an open market, the contract rule tells you what will settle it; it does not tell you what the final number will be. A screenshot or a nearby station page may show a number, but neither is a settlement source unless the contract names it.

Daily window definitions are not universal

A daily temperature market needs a definition of the calendar day. The NWS observation FAQ states that for its climate products the daily period follows local standard time even during daylight saving time. That is a source-specific convention. The Jinan contract uses its own source and its own window language, so the NWS convention should not be pasted onto the Jinan market or onto every country's weather agency. Similarly, CLI daily climate reports are preliminary and subject to revision, with final NCEI quality control occurring later. A contract that names a different source inherits that source's timing rules.

The settlement mechanics behind Yes and No

For ordinary binary contracts, a winning share pays 1 and a losing share pays 0. A rare unknown or 50-50 resolution can pay 0.50 to each side, which is not the same as a universal cancellation or refund. The Jinan temperature market itself is not a Yes/No question about a city being warm; the submarket asks whether the highest temperature will be 15°C or below, and the contract resolves to the range containing that finalized highest temperature. The categorical answer is the product of the rule, not of intuition about the weather.

Rules specify the source, the deadline, and edge cases, and the title alone is not enough. That general principle is worth applying here: read the named station, the named unit, the named precision, and the finalization language before you form a view on any size.

What to check before you act on a daily temperature market

Work through a short list. First, confirm the exact station name and location; a city label is not a station. Second, confirm the unit and displayed precision; whole degrees Celsius is a different object from a decimal Fahrenheit reading. Third, find the finalization sentence; the contract cannot resolve before data is finalized and revisions after that point are excluded. Fourth, verify whether the daily window uses local standard time, local daylight time, or another convention. Fifth, check whether a nearby-station reading or a screenshot is actually named by the contract, because if it is not, it is not the settlement source.

If any of those 5 points is ambiguous on the page you are reading, the correct next step is to open the contract rule text and the cited source page. That is the narrow, reproducible check that this reader task calls for.

Weather markets provide the broader station and observation context. Resolution rules clarify the source and finalization clause. Forecast calibration concerns the accuracy of repeated forecasts, a separate question from rounding a recorded temperature.