Space launch markets: takeoff, altitude, orbit and delays

What this rule actually counts

The captured contract asks how many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026. Read the settlement wording literally: a launch counts once the Starship takes off from its launchpad and reaches a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Orbit is not required. Payload deployment is not required. Recovery is not required. If the vehicle reaches 62 miles and then suffers an anomaly such as an explosion, the later anomaly has no bearing on the count.

That wording creates 2 separate questions that look similar but are not the same. Reaching 62 miles is an altitude test. Reaching orbit is a velocity and trajectory test. A suborbital arc can cross the altitude line and satisfy this specific rule while never entering orbit. The rule does not claim 62 miles is the universal official boundary of space; it is the number written into this snapshot, retrieved on 10 October 2026. Any comparison with another contract that uses a different threshold or a different window needs to be recomputed against that other text.

Worked hypothetical: 2 attempts, 1 qualifying

Take an illustrative pair of flights. Flight A lifts off and reaches 60 miles above sea level. Flight B lifts off, reaches 63 miles, then suffers an anomaly after crossing the threshold. Under the captured rule, A does not qualify because 60 miles is below 62, and B qualifies because 63 miles is above 62 and the anomaly occurred after the threshold. The qualifying total is 1 out of 2 attempts. These flights are hypothetical, constructed to test the rule; they do not describe any real launch outcome.

The arithmetic is a counting rule, not a forecast: count attempts whose maximum altitude is at least 62 miles. Of 2 attempts, 1 sits below the line and 1 above, so the count is 1. Apply the same test to a longer list if you want, but do not read the result as a prediction. If the threshold, the date window or the altitude definition changes, the count has to be recomputed against the new text.

For the mechanics that sit behind prediction contracts, including how winning shares are normally paid and why rule detail controls edge cases, see this explanation of prediction market resolution. It covers ordinary binary outcomes and notes that a title alone is not enough to settle a market.

The altitude test in table form

The table applies the captured rule to 2 invented flights. It is a rule test, not an empirical study, and the altitudes are illustrative only.

Scheduled is not completed

A scheduled attempt may be postponed before launch. NASA documented a postponement when the launch of a mission to boost the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory scrubbed due to unfavorable weather, with a next attempt targeted for no earlier than Wednesday, July 1 at 9:43 p.m. UTC+12 (5:43 a.m. EDT) on a Pegasus XL rocket from Kwajalein Atoll. That is a dated source snapshot, not a current schedule or a statement about any prediction contract.

For an altitude-based count, a scrubbed attempt normally does not qualify, because there is no liftoff and no altitude crossing. That is why a scheduled count and a completed count can diverge. If you are tracking a threshold count, log liftoff and altitude separately instead of treating a manifest entry as a launch.

For related reading, continue with the science guide and the journal overview.

Limits and what to check next

3 limits apply. First, the Starship rule is a retrieved snapshot checked on 10 October 2026, with some example dates already past; no current tradability, outcome or price is asserted. Second, the 2-flight case is authored to explain the rule and says nothing about actual flights. Third, the weather postponement shows that schedules move; it does not establish any general delay rate, and a single documented scrub is not a frequency estimate.

Before relying on a count, verify the live rule text, the exact altitude threshold, the date window and the stated resolution source. Then decide whether you are counting completed altitude crossings or merely scheduled attempts. If you only need the concept, the 60-mile versus 63-mile example is enough. If you are applying it to live events, re-read the current contract, because rules and dates can change.