Mention markets: speaker, recording and the relevant time window

A dated contract decides 1 question

Start with a documented rule set. The example submarket asked whether Donald Trump would say the phrase Dancing in the Street in October. Its settlement description resolved Yes only if he mentioned the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and No otherwise. A mention counted only as a verbal mention recorded in audio or video and publicly accessible. Written usages such as Truth Social posts or written statements did not count, and videos posted on his social media that were filmed outside that window did not qualify either.

That snapshot was retrieved on 10 October 2026. It documents a historical rule set, not a live quote, and it says nothing about whether such a market trades now or at what price. The object of study is the clause itself: a named speaker, a recording requirement and a fixed calendar period.

2 hypothetical cases that fail the recording condition

The illustration below is hypothetical and uses the contract vocabulary. It is not an observation of any real post, speech or resolution.

Both cases fail for the same structural reason. The contract requires speech inside the window and a recording that captures it, so neither the mere act of reposting old footage nor writing a fresh post creates a qualifying mention. The posting date is not the recording date.

Grammar, translation and who is speaking

The submarket page points to a full Period Mentions Contract. Read that linked PDF when a case turns on grammar, translation, acronyms or the identity of the speaker. The full rules state that remarks must be recorded during the period and released within the contract timeframe, so prior recordings are excluded. They also state that original admissible audio recording and the exact clauses take precedence over any AI transcription; a transcription tool can help you find the passage, but it is not the qualifying spoken evidence.

Under that contract, plural or possessive forms can qualify for a singular specified word, while a singular form does not qualify when the term is specified as plural. Other grammatical derivations and verb tenses do not qualify. Expanded acronyms do not: saying artificial intelligence does not satisfy a listed term of AI. Foreign translations do not qualify unless they are perfect cognates. Apply the clause’s term-matching rule to the recorded speech; a translation in a caption is not a spoken mention.

Silent on-screen words and subtitles do not count unless the specified entity actually speaks them. Synthetic impersonation audio or video does not qualify unless the contract expressly says otherwise. Nothing here is a universal rule for all mention contracts; each one carries its own term list, speaker and window, so read the document attached to the specific question.

What determines settlement, and where to read more

The contract's own rules specify the source, the deadline and the exceptional cases. Ordinary binary contracts pay 1 per winning share and 0 per losing share, while a rare unknown resolution can pay .50 on each side; that is not a universal cancellation or refund. Verify the clauses of the specific question, because a title alone cannot determine settlement.

For question design across other market types, the guide on formats covers how structures and wording shape what a contract can resolve. When a dispute reaches the adjudication layer, the resolution overview describes how sources, deadlines and edge cases are handled. If you keep a personal record of evidence, the journal guide explains how to log what you checked and when.

A protocol for checking an audio claim

1. Open the full linked contract, not only the market summary. 2. Note the specified speaker and the exact listed term in its original English spelling. 3. Convert the window to the timezone you actually watch from; the October example uses ET. 4. Confirm the recording is audio or video, publicly accessible, and that the speech happened inside the window; the posting date alone does not prove this. 5. Check the words actually spoken, not subtitles or captions. 6. Test the grammar against the rule for singular, plural and possessive forms. 7. Record a citation to the original clip and the moment you believe the term is said. 8. Compare the clip with the contract's own conditions before treating the mention as qualifying.

This protocol is an illustrative workflow, not an empirical study and not a forecast of any outcome. The rules summarized here belong to a dated October contract and its linked PDF; do not generalize them to every mention market.